Housing-Urban-Labor-Macro (HULM) conference explores causes and consequences of the housing crisis

The University of Wisconsin-Madison has long been known as a leader in research, including cutting-edge explorations of housing and economic issues conducted by the UW-Madison real estate faculty. Compelling real-life problems challenge these leading academics to find unique solutions for improving our urban environment worldwide.

In March, the UW real estate faculty joined their peers in sharing the findings of their research at the sixth Housing-Urban-Labor-Macro (HULM) Conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. This biannual conference was first held in the fall of 2009 and is now well known for facilitating the presentation and discussion of some of the most impressive real estate and urban research conducted by leading academics from around the world.

"We organized the first HULM conference in an effort to create a new venue for the rapidly growing field of real estate research," says Professor and Graaskamp Center Academic Director Morris A. Davis. "Our partnerships with the Federal Reserve Banks in Atlanta, Chicago and St. Louis have helped us widen our audience and bring this research to the people who will benefit the most from it."

The spring 2012 HULM conference was organized by Professor Erwan Quintin, a former senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "A unique aspect of this event is the collaboration it fosters between academic researchers who study optimal policy responses to various real estate events and the very people who implement these policy responses," says Quintin. "This includes not only Federal Reserve economists but also researchers from government-sponsored agencies."

As has been the case for most HULM meetings to date, the causes and consequences of the foreclosure boom emerged as the dominant question at the Boston Fed event. Among other presenters, Kyle Herkenhoff discussed the effect of foreclosure delays on the length of unemployment spells, while Paul Willen proposed a new and improved way to measure the effect of foreclosed properties on the value of neighboring homes.

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, for his part, argued that the deterioration of underwriting standards is the most likely explanation for the recent boom-bust cycle in home prices. That presentation prompted a very lively debate on what caused this deterioration in the first place. Two possible explanations are a regulatory environment more tolerant of risky mortgages around the turn of the century and the effects of increased demand for the investment grade paper created via mortgage securitization.

Urban economics questions also received their fair share of attention, with several presentations devoted to explaining why observationally similar people tend to earn very different amounts in different cities. Gilles Duranton, for his part, discussed a new approach to measure the speed with which urban costs rise with city size.

At the end of the two-day conference, Quintin says he feels the goals of presentation and collaboration were well met.

"HULM is a unique opportunity for economists around the world who study real estate questions to exchange and debate ideas," Quintin says. "Research ideas are born or become more mature at HULM, new co-authorships are formed, and new policy proposals emerge." Davis echoes this sentiment, saying, "When you have 40 people in a room that are all experts, we are able to learn from listening to what people we don't typically interact with have to say."

The next installment of the conference will take place at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on October 5-6, 2012.

Reporting from MIPIM: Cautious optimism

The Graaskamp Center was very glad for the opportunity to contribute to MIPIM's official blog. Prof. Erwan Quintin, along with Wisconsin School of Business Dean François Ortalo-Magné, led the delegation of Wisconsin Real Estate MBA students who attended the international event. He summarized his perspective and his outlook on the week's activities in this post.

As seems to be the case every year, strong themes clearly emerged at MIPIM. First and foremost, participants are looking for signs that the crisis days are over and that investors are once again willing to accept some exposure to real estate beyond the safest, core markets. Investors also want to know which opportunistic markets will benefit the most from the recovery, if and when it comes. And they want to know what lessons, if any, the industry has learned from the crisis experience.

The broad sentiment at MIPIM this year is probably best described as “cautious optimism.” As bearish as they sound about their own markets, European investors appear remarkably bullish about U.S. prospects.

He also offered this:

A near consensus also emerged among institutional investors that the basic investment model in real estate must change in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Capital losses of historic magnitude have prompted large investors to question past practices, demand significant changes in how they interact with partners and fund managers. Investors are demanding more control over how their capital gets deployed, more transparency, and are working harder to align incentives throughout the intermediation chain. A new and improved real estate fund model should result from this phenomenon.

To continue reading Prof. Quintin's outlook, visit the MIPIMWorld blog.

Wisconsin also contributed these posts:

• A Political Perspective on the Euro Crisis: Students and faculty from the Wisconsin School of Business are attending MIPIM 2012 this week. Bashar Elayyan reports on his experiences and takeaways from Day 3.
• MIPIM: The Students’ View: The Wisconsin School of Business gears up to cover MIPIM 2012.

For more of Wisconsin's Reporting from MIPIM here on the Wisconsin Real Estate Viewpoint, click on the "MIPIM" tag.

Mortgage REITs: too hot to touch?

By Erwan Quintin, Assistant Professor of Real Estate at the Wisconsin School of Business

At a time where a wall of cash is sitting on the sidelines looking for yield, mortgage REITs have garnered a lot of attention. The recipe is simple: 1) borrow short term at rates currently near 0% and invest in mortgages or mortgage-backed securities, 2) lever highly, and voila, dividend yields close to or in excess of 20%.

The catch behind these lofty yields, of course and as always, is risk. Minor changes in the spread between mortgage rates and short rates can cause yields and market valuations to fluctuate wildly. The past few weeks are evidence of that, as the Motley Fool explains here.

At this juncture, a mortgage REIT play is a bet that the yield curve will continue to slope sufficiently up for sufficiently long. The Fed has promised to keep the short-end down until 2013 but, at the same time, has announced its intentions to bring the long-end down. Its ability to deliver on both objectives will define mortgage REIT returns over the next few quarters. As the Motley Fool writes, REITs can take steps to mitigate their exposure to yield curve inflections, choose their preferred location on the yield/risk menu, and in the process target investors with different tolerances for risk.

Discussing causes and consequences of the housing crisis at the Chicago Fed

By Erwan Quintin, Assistant Professor of Real Estate at the Wisconsin School of Business

The Real Estate Department's Housing-Urban-Labor-Macro (HULM) conference took place this weekend at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The conference, a bi-annual event founded three years ago by my colleague Morris A. Davis, brings together individuals who are pushing the frontier in all aspects of real estate research. It is now recognized in academic circles as one of the premier events in urban and housing finance research.

As one would expect, much of the event focused once again on the causes and consequences of the recent housing crisis. No fewer than three competing explanations were proposed for the run-up of home prices until mid-2006 and their sharp collapse thereafter: the unintended consequences of the toughening of personal bankruptcy statutes in 2005, the role of speculators on the way up and the way down, and plain-old herd behavior. A session -- highlighted by presentations by UW's own Randy Wright and Morris Davis -- discussed the impact of inflation on housing investment and prices. Several papers also took on standard themes in urban research: Why do productivity and wages differs so much across cities? What accounts for patterns of trade across cities? Details and papers are here.

A unique aspect of this event is the collaboration it fosters between academic researchers who study optimal policy responses to various real estate events and the very people who implement these policy responses, including not only Federal Reserve economists but also researchers from government-sponsored agencies (GSA). The next installment of the conference will take place at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in March 2012.

Message to a prospective student

Since we launched our blog in 2009, we have asked MBA students in the Graaskamp Center to contribute to a series called Meet Our Current Students. In their posts, they share their impressions and experiences of their first-year in the program. In his first post for us, Andrew Toby has a message for prospective students:

It’s that time of year. The leaves are beginning to change color, the weather is cooling down, football season is under way, and, for prospective MBA students, the first round admissions deadline is rapidly approaching.

For me, this took place a year ago, although it seems like just yesterday. My intent for this message, however, is not to get nostalgic about the endless hours of program researching, resume refining, and essay editing that I experienced. Rather, it is to reflect on my experience during my first month with the program.

Let’s take a look at some of the things that I’m enjoying about the program (and living in Madison) so far:

Specialization classes begin immediately. No waiting until your second year to finally get to the material you came back to school for. The first year MBA class is taking Real Estate Finance with Erwan Quintin this semester. The class is challenging but incredibly informative and applicable to the industry, and we often spend a good portion of class time just discussing current events (which are abundant given the current financial condition of the economy). I can honestly say that the material being covered in this class is precisely what I was looking for in Real Estate MBA education.

The alumni are interactive and supportive. One of the program’s greatest strengths is its alumni, and there was no time wasted in getting linked into the network right as the program began. We have registered as student members of the Wisconsin Real Estate Alumni Association (WREAA), which allows us access to alumni events, job postings, etc. Each student has also been paired up with an alumni mentor for more in-depth, one on one interaction and support.

The high regard for the program draws visits from other prominent industry professionals. Our interaction with prominent industry professionals is not just limited to our alumni. Within the first few weeks of the program, we have already been fortunate enough to receive a visit from Brad Olsen of Atlantic Partners, Ltd, who gave a thought-provoking lecture on global real estate. We also had some face to face time (via Skype) with Jay Lehman, Director of National Recruiting at Toll Brothers, Inc. for some direct advice on career preparation. Jay has interviewed thousands of candidates and reviewed even more resumes from applicants hoping to crack into the real estate industry, so the advice he was able to share with us was invaluable. The Wisconsin Real Estate Club also presented the Innovator Award to Michael Ashner of Winthrop Realty Trust, who took time to share his thoughts and advice about succeeding in the industry.

Madison is a great city. There hasn’t been any shortage of activity in Madison - so much, actually, that I could write an entire post solely discussing all the things that I’ve had the opportunity to do since I moved here. Even more specifically, as I consider myself somewhat of a foodie, I could also dedicate a post to the plethora of delicious restaurants I’ve dined at during the last month. From the activities on the lake (sailing, kayaking, fishing, skiing, etc.) to live music (including many free shows and festivals), Madison is sure to entertain. (The Madison Experience, video)

These are just my some of my first impressions, and I’d like to tie them together with a huge emphasis on how happy I am with my decision to attend the Wisconsin School of Business. Making the decision to go to b-school is tough, and choosing which school is right for you can be agonizing. As a guy who had previously spent his entire life in California, I know that the adjustment can be intimidating. Rest assured that Madison, UW, and the Graaskamp Center for Real Estate combine to make a welcoming place that you’ll be happy to call your new home.

Andrew Toby is a first-year MBA student in the James A. Graaskamp Center for Real Estate. A CPA from California, Andrew hopes to utilize both his accounting background and the knowledge gained in the MBA program to pursue a career in private equity investments in real estate.

Studying Tax Incremental Financing (TIF) in the field

By Erwan Quintin, Assistant Professor of Real Estate at the Wisconsin School of Business

On Sunday, The Wisconsin State Journal published an opinion piece on the use of Tax Incremental Financing in general and in the specific context of the controversial Edgewater hotel project. The discussion caught my eye as something that could be really useful to my Real Estate Finance students (RE 410 and 710).

It makes for a great read if you have a moment: Get the facts on Edgewater funding, WSJ, 9/18/11

Fostering collaboration

On March 4th and 5th, Wisconsin Real Estate faculty members Stephen Malpezzi, Tim Riddiough, Morris A. Davis and Erwan Quintin attended the fifth installment of the UW-Fed Housing-Urban-Labor-Macro (HULM) conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

The conference, a bi-annual event founded three years ago by Morris Davis, brings together individuals who are pushing the frontier in all aspects of real estate research. The first part of the conference focused on the causes and consequences of the recent subprime crisis and on the effects of various policy responses to the crisis. The second part of the conference dealt with cycles in the market for land and structures. Details and papers are here.

A unique aspect of this increasingly successful event is the collaboration it fosters between academic researchers who study optimal policy responses to various real estate events and the very people who implement these policy responses. The latter include not only Federal Reserve economists but also researchers from Government Sponsored Agencies. One of the highlights of this year’s event was an intense debate over the merits of loan modification policies motivated by a unique study of Countrywide’s court-imposed modification program.

The next installment of the conference will take place at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in September.

Photo by Lance McCord via Flickr

The Housing Hangover: How Bad Will It Be?

By Erwan Quintin, Assistant Professor of Real Estate at the Wisconsin School of Business

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) sales of existing homes in the U.S. tumbled by 17% in December, the largest monthly decline since the Association began reporting this measure in 1968. Drops of this magnitude usually come with a simple explanation. In this case, we are witnessing the home buyer tax credit hangover that economists have been anticipating for months.

The home buyer tax credit program gives buyers who haven’t purchased a home in at least three years and who meet certain income criteria a tax credit equal to 10% of the purchase price of their new home, up to $8,000. The program was originally set to expire on November 30th, but was extended in early November in both time and scope. The program’s intent was to give potential homebuyers incentives to purchase homes now; and, to some extent, to bring new buyers into the market. The fact that home sales rose at a healthy pace in the second half of 2009 and are now falling is evidence that the program “worked.” The NAR’s report also contains more direct evidence that many first-time homebuyers accelerated their purchases to secure the credit: they accounted for 43% of purchases in December, down from 51% in November.

At first glance, it may seem surprising that sales tumbled while the median home price rose by 1.5%. However, this result is a false positive which is essentially the hangover effect at work. Until last November, the credit was limited to first-time home buyers whose income was below $75,000 for singles, and $125,000 for households. Households who meet those criteria tend to buy cheaper homes. When they left the sample of home buyers in December, median prices mechanically rose.

Most people would agree that the program had the desired effect: it has moved home purchases forward. One could argue that the goal of all stimulus plans (fiscal and monetary stimulus, accelerated depreciation schemes, etc.) is to cause a spending shift. The goal is to borrow from a presumably stronger future to support flagging activity today. All stimulus plans, therefore, are bound to come with a hangover. The hope is that the hangover does not overwhelm the initial gains. (For a more detailed discussion the hangover effect, click here.)

How bad will the hangover be in housing markets? Over the next few months, home sales will benefit from the extending the housing credit program to a broader set of buyers until April 30, 2010. However, the same set of questions will arise in May. As is the case with all stimulus programs, the timing of the withdrawal is critical. If economic conditions have improved sufficiently by May, and a recovery is under way, the losses associated with the credit expiration will have limited effects. If, on the other hand, markets remain dependent on policy support, then a relapse is certainly possible.

Take, for instance, the foreclosure crisis. Foreclosure rates have tripled since mid-2006. Without policy support, however, things may have been worse. One incentive for households who experience financial difficulties to hold on to their home is the prospect of selling their home at a good price in the future. (For more information on this topic, click here.) If it becomes clear in May that selling prospects have suddenly worsened, the hangover could come with yet another foreclosure spike.

As they say in policy circles these days, we need an exit strategy. I would like to recommend the “Wisconsin Foreclosure and Unemployment Relief" program, or WI-FUR, a plan developed by my faculty colleagues Morris A. Davis, Stephen Malpezzi, and François Ortalo-Magné.