Thursday, March 10, 2011

Roubini on the recovery: the glass is half full AND half empty

The outlook on the global economic recovery is mixed, best described as a glass half full and half empty, at the same time, says Dr. Nouriel Roubini is his keynote address on Thursday at MIPIM.

Here are the pluses, the strong and important factors driving optimism today: Not only have we seen positive growth but accelerated positive growth in the last few months. Risks of default in euro zone and double-dip recession are decreasing. The balance sheets of high-grade companies in the US and Western Europe are strong.

But there are minuses, too, macro uncertainties driving pessimism: mid-east turmoil and its effects on oil prices; problems from public debt and foreign liabilities in the private sector; and significant problems in the U.S. including high unemployment and modest job growth, risk of a double dip in the housing sector, and significant deficits at the state and local levels.

After this and three days of meeting and greeting and listening and learning, how are you feeling about the global recovery? Is your glass half-full or half-empty?

Our coverage of the rest of Thursday's sessions at MIPIM will continue. Plus we'll have the wrap-up keynote presentation by Prof. François Ortalo-Magné on Friday.

1 comment:

  1. The champagne flutes were half full this year versus half empty last year and the “Gin and Panic” of two years ago...

    For more about the sentiment at MIPIM based on a CREOpoint & KPMG study of the online buzz you could visit or